Middle East Rainfall Anomaly October 2016

Middle East Rainfall Anomaly October 2016

Drought is generally considered an extended period (season, year or several years) of deficient precipitation compared to the long-term average for an area that results in water shortage for some activity, group or environmental sector (National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), 2008). It is thus important to monitor precipitation levels in order to ensure a proactive response and effective early warning.

October sees the start of the planting of winter wheat and barley, with planting taking place between late October through December. The active growing season is January through April, with harvesting occurring in May/June. Sufficient rainfall during the planting and growing season is essential for a good harvest.

The results of the analysis indicate that rainfall in October 2016 was significantly lower than the previous year, over most of the region, and slightly below the 15 year average for the month of October. The rainfall situation over the highlands in Jordan has shown an improvement with rainfall slightly higher than the October long term average.

Forecasts for rainfall across the region for November 2016, are positive, and RFSAN will continue to monitor the rainfall over the coming months.

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